Which country will win a team medal in Monpazier?

I promise this is my fourth and final blog about data and the Worlds. The next one will likely by my own little crewing report and how we got on!

It’s important not to forget that many nations know that they don’t have individual medal contenders but with some consistent riding they can still medal as a nation. Let’s check out the results of the previous three Worlds' team results to see if there’s something the rest of us can learn:

Photo credit: FEI

Lessons from Previous Championships

Analyzing the results from the last three World Championships—Boutheeb 2023, Pisa 2021, and Samorin 2016—offers valuable insights into what it takes to medal as a team. The key lessons from these competitions are clear: consistency in performance, strategic pacing, and the ability to adapt to race conditions are critical.

Boutheeb 2023

1.      FRA (France) – av speed 16.56kmph

2.      POR (Portugal) – av speed 15.83kmph

3.      ITA (Italy) – av speed 15.14kmph

4.      EST (Estonia) – av speed 14.39kmph

- Key Insight: 23 teams started but only 4 teams finished! High attrition rates among usually dominant nations created opportunities for emerging teams like Estonia. The critical factor was simply finishing with enough riders. France’s strategy of maintaining a steady, manageable pace allowed them to finish with four riders, the only nation to do so, and secure the gold medal.

Pisa 2021

1.      ESP (Spain) – av speed 20.72kmph

2.      BRA (Brazil) – av speed 20.67kmph

3.      FRA (France) – av speed 20.24kmph

- Key Insight: Only 12 teams started this Champs but still we saw only three team finish! Spain dominated with a high-speed approach, but Brazil and France where not far behind. Once again we see France medaling with four riders, the only nation to do so!

Samorin 2016

1.      ESP (Spain) – av speed 23.18kmph

2.      FRA (France) – av speed 20.31kmph

3.      NED (Netherlands) – av speed 20.24kmph

4.      AUS (Australia)

5.      OMA (Oman)

6.      ARG (Argentina)

7.      NOR (Norway)

- Key Insight: This championship saw a higher number of teams finishing, but sadly there isn’t data to show how many teams started. Spain’s exceptional average speed was matched by a well-coordinated team effort, while France and the Netherlands also excelled by balancing speed with careful management of horse endurance.

Strategies for Success in Monpazier

Based on these lessons, teams aiming for a medal in Monpazier should focus on several key strategies:

1. Consistency Over Speed:

   - Teams should prioritise finishing with a full squad rather than pushing individual riders for the fastest times. The data shows that teams with consistent speeds and close finishing times (i.e. riding together) are more likely to medal.

2. Balanced Pacing:

   - A steady, sustainable pace is essential, especially in the middle loops of the race. Teams that avoid drastic fluctuations in speed reduce the risk of metabolic issues and ensure their horses can complete the race in good condition.

3. Team Coordination:

   - Successful teams like France and Spain have demonstrated the importance of team cohesion. Riders must work together, adjusting their pace to stay within range of each other and ensure a synchronised finish.

Predictions for Monpazier: Who Will Medal?

Given the trends from recent championships and the specific strategies that have led to success, here are the top contenders for team medals in Monpazier:

France’s recent history of success in team competitions, including their gold medal at Boutheeb 2023, makes them a strong contender. Their ability to finish with all team members intact, combined with their familiarity with the terrain in Monpazier, gives them an edge.

- Strategy: Expect France to adopt a steady, consistent pace, leveraging their experience and deep pool of talent to secure another team medal.

Spain’s dominance in past championships, such as Samorin 2016 and Pisa 2021, is built on a foundation of speed combined with smart team strategies. Their riders are known for finishing within close time ranges, indicating excellent team coordination.

- Strategy: Spain is likely to push for a high average speed while ensuring that their team remains cohesive throughout the race. Their adaptability to different race conditions will be crucial in Monpazier.

Portugal’s impressive second-place finish at Boutheeb 2023 signals their emergence as a serious medal contender. They have shown a balanced approach, focusing on team finishes rather than individual speed.

- Strategy: Portugal will likely continue with a strategy that balances endurance with a safe, sustainable pace, ensuring that they finish with enough riders to secure a team medal.

Brazil’s second-place finish at Pisa 2021, demonstrated their ability to manage both speed and endurance effectively. They certainly can’t be ruled out.

- Strategy: Brazil will focus on strategic race management, likely adopting a pacing strategy that prioritises team completion over individual accolades.

Italy’s recent third-place finish at Boutheeb 2023 shows they are on an upward trajectory. Their team has a strong tradition in endurance riding, and they are known for strategic depth.

- Strategy: Italy will likely adopt a conservative strategy, aiming to finish with all team members while maintaining a competitive pace.

Outsiders: UAE

While the UAE boast some of the fastest riders and is likely to secure individual medals, their high-risk strategies and focus on speed over team cohesion have historically undermined their chances in the team competition. Unless they shift to a more balanced approach that prioritises team finishes, they may continue to fall short in the race for team medals.

Conclusion

As we look ahead to Monpazier, the data from past championships suggests that teams focusing on consistency, balanced pacing, and cohesion are best positioned to medal. France & Spain are the top contenders, with Portugal, Brazil and Italy also in the mix. For nations like the UAE, a strategic shift could be necessary to transform individual success into team glory.

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