Monpazier Predictions
- Bella Fricker
- Aug 27, 2024
- 5 min read
Updated: 4 days ago
Hopefully you’ve made it to this blog in the logical order of reading the Monpazier report (of the previous five 160kms) and then the Worlds report (of the previous three Championships) and then this predictive blog become all the more logical. And whilst it is still only my view, it is backed up with a LOT of data points. 😉
1. Winning Speed and Completion Rates:
- Winning Speeds:
- Historically, winning speeds in Monpazier have been relatively consistent, ranging between 18.72 km/h and 19.55 km/h. This suggests that the course and conditions allow for a moderately fast pace, but not excessively high speeds.
- We can expect the winning speed this year to be higher due to the elevated stakes of the event, likely around 19 to 19.5 kmph, but could even reach 20kmph, depending on weather and course conditions.
- Completion Rates:
- Completion rates have fluctuated significantly, from as low as 33% (2022) to as high as 65.52% (2018).
- The completion rate for this year will likely hover around the World Championship average of 35% but could be as high as 40% based on the course data. This is all assuming conditions are similar to recent years of course (but then I could put that caveat next to every statement!)
2. Loop Analysis:
- Gate 1 (39km)
- Speeds in the first loop tend to be moderate, with averages ranging from 14.69 kmph to 17.52 kmph. The first loop seems to serve as a settling-in period, where riders gauge the course and condition their horses for the race ahead.
- The first loop this year is likely to show similar speeds, with most competitors starting conservatively to manage their horses’ energy for the later stages.
- Gate 2 (20km) and 3 (32km):
- Speeds generally increase in the second and third loops, with riders starting to push their pace. This trend is seen consistently across all years, with speeds in these loops often being among the highest, particularly in the third loop. I expect we will definitely see this in the shorter second loop.
- We can expect a similar trend this year, with the second and third loops being critical phases where riders try to improve their positioning and maintain a good pace.
- Gate 4 (20km):
- The fourth loop typically shows a slight reduction in speed compared to the third loop, indicating the beginning of fatigue for both horses and riders. However, the reduction is not drastic, suggesting that competitors are still maintaining a solid pace.
- This year, the fourth loop will likely continue to be a turning point where those who manage their horses well begin to distinguish themselves from the rest.
- Gate 5 (23km):
- The fifth loop tends to see a mix of strategies, with some riders pushing hard while others begin to conserve energy for the final push. Speeds here have been variable, but generally, the top competitors maintain higher speeds compared to the average.
- Expect similar dynamics this year, with the fifth loop being a critical moment for those aiming for top positions to make their move.
- Gate 6 (26km):
- The introduction of a sixth loop in 2023 saw a significant increase in speeds among the Top 10 riders, indicating a final push to secure positions. The completion speed was also higher than in the previous loops, reflecting the urgency of the last stage.
- This trend will likely continue, with the final loop being a high-speed sprint towards the finish for those still in contention.
3. Impact of GA, RET, and MET:
- GA (Gait Abnormality:
- GA has been a significant factor in non-completion, especially in the more recent years (e.g., 39% in 2023). This suggests that managing the horse’s health throughout the race is crucial, and lameness is likely to be a major factor in determining who finishes.
- This year, we can expect a high percentage of non-completions due to GA, especially in the later loops where fatigue and accumulated stress take their toll.
- RET (Retirement) and MET (Metabolic Elimination):
- RET and MET rates have fluctuated, with higher MET rates typically correlating with more challenging weather conditions.
- We might see similar patterns this year, with RET and MET playing significant roles, particularly in the fourth and fifth loops, where the decision to continue or withdraw becomes critical.
4. Overall Predictions:
- Winning Speed: Expect around 19.5 to 20 km/h.
- Completion Rate: Likely between 35-40%, reflecting the increasing challenge of the event.
- Decisive Loops: The third and fourth loops will be pivotal in determining who can finish the race. The fifth loop will see strategic positioning, and the final loop will be a high-speed sprint.
- GA, RET, MET Impact: High GA rates will likely continue to be a major factor in non-completions, particularly in the latter half of the race.
GA: 35% to 40%.
RET: 10% to 15%
MET: 5% to 10%
| Completion | Top 10 | FTQ |
Gate 1: 39km | 16.00 - 16.30 | 17.20 – 18.00 | 15.90 – 16.10 |
Gate 2: 20km | 15.80 – 16.10 | 17.90 – 18.70 | 15.60 – 15.90 |
Gate 3: 32km | 17.50 – 17.80 | 18.00 – 18.40 | 16.90 – 17.20 |
Gate 4: 20km | 16.60 – 16.90 | 18.00 – 18.30 | 17.20 – 17.50 |
Gate 5: 23km | 17.00 – 17.30 | 19.50 – 20.00 | 16.40 – 16.70 |
Gate 6: 26km | 18.00 – 18.30 | 21.00 – 21.50 | 15.90 – 16.20 |
Average | 16.80 - 17.20 | 19.50 to 20.00 | 15.80 to 16.30 |
5. Take care:
Given the data from previous years at Monpazier, several common mistakes or challenges have emerged that riders and teams could focus on avoiding during this year's World Championship.
- Mismanagement of Pace: In previous years, there has been a tendency for some riders to start too fast, particularly in the early loops, leading to significant drops in performance or even withdrawals in the later stages of the race. Riders should adopt a conservative pace in the first two loops, focusing on maintaining a steady rhythm rather than pushing too hard too soon. This will help preserve the horse’s energy for the more demanding middle and final loops.
- Lameness: A high percentage of horses have been eliminated due to lameness issues (GA) in Monpazier, particularly in the latter loops. This suggests that riders may not be paying enough attention to the horse's condition throughout the race.
- Weather: Weather conditions have played a significant role in past events, with heat and humidity being particularly challenging. Riders who did not account for weather conditions often faced difficulties, particularly with their horses’ metabolic health.
Conclusion:
The trends suggest that Monpazier’s course challenges riders and horses with a mix of tactical loops where speed management and horse care are crucial. The race will likely be decided in the middle loops, with a strong finish required to secure top positions. As always, conditions on the day will play a crucial role, but the historical data gives a good indication of what to expect.
But what about the teams I hear you say. Afterall, the World Championships is as much about the team event as the individual!
If you enjoyed this content and would like to support more blog posts like this, consider buying me a coffee! Your contribution helps keep the site going and ensures I can continue creating valuable content for you. Thank you for your support! ☕💛
Comments